Osasuna 0-3 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Celta Vigo 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 47% versus Celta Vigo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Celta Vigo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.45 xG and Celta Vigo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.996 / defence 1.005 | Celta Vigo attack 1.001 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.150. Data: 60 Osasuna games / 60 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Celta Vigo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Celta Vigo 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.45 / Celta Vigo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.996 / def 1.005 | Celta Vigo attack 1.001 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Celta Vigo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Osasuna 0 - 3 Celta Vigo.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 2 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.36
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.60
1.16
Celta Vigo xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.16 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 28L across 60 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 14W 4D 11L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.07 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.59 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 41%, Celta Vigo 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 48% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 31% of games; Celta Vigo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Osasuna's recent matches and 55% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Celta Vigo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 0-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.45 xG and Celta Vigo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Celta Vigo attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 28%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Celta Vigo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.