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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.70 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 3 for Suwon City FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with Suwon City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Suwon City FC trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Suwon City FC 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Suwon City FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.908 / defence 0.935 | Suwon City FC attack 1.262 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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