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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Suwon City FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FC Anyang and Suwon City FC meet at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC Anyang have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L at Anyang Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Suwon City FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. FC Anyang's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Suwon City FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Anyang lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Suwon City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 61% and Suwon City FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 56% | Suwon City FC 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.97 xG and Suwon City FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.044 / defence 1.001 | Suwon City FC attack 1.245 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.226. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 FC Anyang games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 48% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon City FC 3.45. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Anyang if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Suwon City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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