Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Relegation Group - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 1.00 PPG versus Daegu FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 62% and Daegu FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Daegu FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.080 / defence 1.159 | Daegu FC attack 1.131 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Daegu FC 3.45. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Daegu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 35 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Suwon City FC 2.12 / Daegu FC 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.080 / def 1.159 | Daegu FC attack 1.131 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Daegu FC xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Group - 35 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 49% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Suwon City FC 2W | Draws 4 | Daegu FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.08) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
49%
2.04
22%
4.52
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.73
1.61
Daegu FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.61 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 25W 16D 31L from 72 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 23D 33L across 72 games — 0.99 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.26 PPG, Daegu FC on 0.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 15W 7D 13L from 35 games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 5W 10D 20L across 35 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Daegu FC in 64%.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 25W 16D 31L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 16W 23D 33L in their last 72 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.49 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Suwon City FC and 63% for Daegu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Suwon City FC's matches and 63% of Daegu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Group - 35, as Suwon City FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Daegu FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Daegu FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.26 PPG, Daegu FC 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.