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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

FC Anyang carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 53% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.059 / defence 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Data: 33 FC Anyang games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 53% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.55. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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