Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 21 July 2023 at 12:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% and Jeju United FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 61% | Jeju United FC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 xG and Jeju United FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.468 / defence 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 1.190 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.191. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.468 — their 2.38 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 56 games and Jeju United FC's last 56.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 22% | Jeju United FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.83 | Draw 4.59 | Jeju United FC 4.23. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.38 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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