Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gwangju FC face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Gwangju FC (all games): 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Suwon Bluewings's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Suwon Bluewings have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.40 for Suwon Bluewings. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Gwangju FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2023, ended Gwangju FC 2–1 Suwon Bluewings — a Gwangju FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 41% versus Suwon Bluewings 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 30% | Suwon Bluewings 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.34 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.971 / defence 0.869 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.057 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.167. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 27 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 60.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 29%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.39 | Draw 3.40 | Suwon Bluewings 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gwangju FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Suwon Bluewings 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gwangju FC 1.34 / Suwon Bluewings 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.971 / def 0.869 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.057 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gwangju FC 4 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 42% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (1.06x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 27 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.40
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.07 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gwangju FC's recent record stands at 10W 9D 8L from 27 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 15L across 27 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gwangju FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon Bluewings heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gwangju FC have managed 6W 3D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.00 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon Bluewings in 63%.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Gwangju FC (Home) vs Suwon Bluewings (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings Form FAQs
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings, the earliest from February 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Gwangju FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gwangju FC won Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 August 2023: Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 23%, Suwon Bluewings 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Gwangju FC) and 54% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Suwon Bluewings Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 77% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 54% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Suwon Bluewings matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 92% of Suwon Bluewings's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gwangju FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon Bluewings 4-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.34 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Suwon Bluewings attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 29%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 30%, Suwon Bluewings 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.