Jeju United FC 1-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Jeju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeju United FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025, 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeju United FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 1.70 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Jeju United FC, 1 for Daejeon Citizen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 49% versus Daejeon Citizen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 46% | Daejeon Citizen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.24 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.188 / defence 1.119 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.316 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.077. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Jeju United FC games / 37 Daejeon Citizen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 45%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 2.22. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 30% | Daejeon Citizen 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeju United FC 1.24 / Daejeon Citizen 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.188 / def 1.119 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.316 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Daejeon Citizen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC 1 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 30% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 3W | Draws 0 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
30%
3.35
25%
4.04
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.59
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.59 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 25W 15D 36L from 76 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 25L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.18 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 16W 8D 14L from 38 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 8W 16D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.30 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 25W 15D 36L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 45%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Jeju United FC) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Jeju United FC's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Jeju United FC 1-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.24 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.59 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 45%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.