Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 05:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Jeju United FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (2.40 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2024, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Jeju United FC — a Jeju United FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Jeju United FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.98 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.926 / defence 0.873 | Jeju United FC attack 0.826 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.108. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 36 games and Jeju United FC's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 36% | Jeju United FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70 | Draw 2.81 | Jeju United FC 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Ulsan Hyundai FC 36 games, Jeju United FC 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights