Suwon City FC 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Suwon City FC 0–1 Jeonbuk Motors — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Jeonbuk Motors have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Jeonbuk Motors surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Suwon City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.04 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.019 / defence 1.109 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.003 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 0.985. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 34 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.96 | Draw 3.37 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 90% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Suwon City FC 34 games, Jeonbuk Motors 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.04 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.019 / def 1.109 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.003 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.081 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.02) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.00x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 34 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.37
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.10 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 37W 19D 20L across 76 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 9D 16L from their last 38 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 19W 7D 12L across their last 38 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Jeonbuk Motors (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 games (1.11 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won Suwon City FC 0-6 Jeonbuk Motors on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Jeonbuk Motors 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Suwon City FC) and 45% (Jeonbuk Motors). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Suwon City FC's matches and 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 63% of Jeonbuk Motors's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 2, as Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.04 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Jeonbuk Motors 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.