Pohang Steelers 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG, Daegu FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Pohang Steelers have won 2, Daegu FC 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Pohang Steelers 1–0 Daegu FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 59% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 37% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.20 xG and Daegu FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.097 / defence 0.997 | Daegu FC attack 1.048 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 0.980. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 34 games and Daegu FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.56 | Draw 3.26 | Daegu FC 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Pohang Steelers 34 games, Daegu FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.20 / Daegu FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.097 / def 0.997 | Daegu FC attack 1.048 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.078 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Daegu FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 3 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.10) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 34 games and Daegu FC's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.26
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.22
1.02
Daegu FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.02 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 28D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (23W 30D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.63 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 21W 11D 5L across their last 37 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 37 away games (8W 15D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 32W 28D 16L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daegu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 60%, Daegu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pohang Steelers) and 49% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 65% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 60% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Daegu FC 3-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.20 xG and Daegu FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Daegu FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 37%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.63 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.