Incheon United 0-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Incheon United at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Suwon City FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park in K League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Incheon United at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon City FC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Suwon City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

On current form, Incheon United have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Incheon United, 1 for Suwon City FC and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Incheon United 2–1 Suwon City FC — a Incheon United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Incheon United in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Suwon City FC 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Incheon United surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.44 xG and Suwon City FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.012 / defence 0.994 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 0.972. Data: built from Incheon United's last 33 games and Suwon City FC's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.14 | Draw 3.54 | Suwon City FC 3.99. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Incheon United 33 games, Suwon City FC 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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