Daegu FC 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Daegu FC take on Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Daegu FC at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Suwon City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Daegu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Daegu FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Daegu FC 2–2 Suwon City FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Suwon City FC 63%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.00 xG and Suwon City FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.819 / defence 0.976 | Suwon City FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.061. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 35 games and Suwon City FC's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 32% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.16 | Draw 2.87 | Suwon City FC 2.99. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Daegu FC 35 games, Suwon City FC 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 32% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Daegu FC 1.00 / Suwon City FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.819 / def 0.976 | Suwon City FC attack 1.004 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 32% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 35 games and Suwon City FC's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
35%
2.87
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.04
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.04 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 30D 23L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 22W 18D 36L from 76 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.30 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 14D 7L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 9D 19L from their last 36 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 78% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 3, as Daegu FC and Suwon City FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.00 xG and Suwon City FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 32% | Draw 35% | Suwon City FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.30 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.