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Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Pohang Steelers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. It was 0-0 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: Choi Geon-Joo (68'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.86 xG and FC Anyang 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.73 / defence 0.81 against FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 41% | FC Anyang 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 66% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.47 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Anyang (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments