Pohang Steelers 0-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Pohang Steelers take on FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang meet at Pohang Steel Yard in K League 1 (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Anyang (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Anyang away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pohang Steelers, 1.60 for FC Anyang — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and FC Anyang's last 10 away games) — Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with FC Anyang managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Pohang Steelers 1–0 FC Anyang — a Pohang Steelers win.
The head-to-head data gives Pohang Steelers an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 47% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | FC Anyang 55%). Note also that FC Anyang surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.86 xG and FC Anyang 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.731 / defence 0.806 | FC Anyang attack 0.946 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.138. Pohang Steelers's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 40 games and FC Anyang's last 40.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 41% | FC Anyang 30%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.39 | Draw 2.45 | FC Anyang 3.37. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Anyang 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 41% | FC Anyang 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Pohang Steelers 0.86 / FC Anyang 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.731 / def 0.806 | FC Anyang attack 0.946 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC Anyang xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang part of?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 30% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 30% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.73x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.95x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 40 games and FC Anyang's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.39
41%
2.45
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.73
0.87
FC Anyang xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.45
41%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 15.3 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.87 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (14W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.29 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across their last 19 home games, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs FC Anyang (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or FC Anyang away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.63 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang, the earliest from April 2025. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, FC Anyang have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Pohang Steelers 0-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pohang Steelers) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Pohang Steelers's games and 63% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 68% of FC Anyang's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Pohang Steelers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.86 xG and FC Anyang 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.73 / defence 0.81 against FC Anyang attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 41% | FC Anyang 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.47 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Anyang (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.