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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Pohang Steelers take on FC Anyang.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Pohang Steelers and FC Anyang meet at Pohang Steel Yard in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Pohang Steelers have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Pohang Steel Yard this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC Anyang (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Anyang away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pohang Steelers, 1.60 for FC Anyang — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Pohang Steelers have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with FC Anyang managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Pohang Steelers winning.

The historical record gives Pohang Steelers a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Statistical Overview

Pohang Steelers's cumulative K League 1 record this campaign: 16W 8D 14L from 38 matches. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-5 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 38 games (8%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

FC Anyang have played 38 games this season, recording 14W 7D 17L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 38 games (16%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Pohang Steelers lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 6). Penalty activity: Pohang Steelers 6/6 vs FC Anyang 2/2 this season.

Trading

Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

FC Anyang half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 47% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | FC Anyang 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.86 xG and FC Anyang 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.731 / defence 0.806 | FC Anyang attack 0.946 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.138. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Pohang Steelers games / 40 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 41% | FC Anyang 30%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.33 | Draw 2.44 | FC Anyang 3.33. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pohang Steelers 60% | FC Anyang 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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