Jeju United FC 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 July 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Daegu FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Jeju United FC, 1.50 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 59% versus Daegu FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 59% | Daegu FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.066 | Daegu FC attack 0.840 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.199. Data: 53 Jeju United FC games / 53 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Daegu FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 70% | Daegu FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Jeju United FC 1.26 / Daegu FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.032 / def 1.066 | Daegu FC attack 0.840 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Daegu FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.84x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.26
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.07
Daegu FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.07 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 23D 18L across 58 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.28 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 8W 10D 10L from 28 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 5W 13D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 17W 23D 18L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 61%, Daegu FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Jeju United FC) and 50% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Jeju United FC's games and 68% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Jeju United FC's matches and 50% of Daegu FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Daegu FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 39% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 30%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 59%, Daegu FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG, Daegu FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.