Daegu FC 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Daegu FC at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.

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Full Analysis

DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 1 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Form

Daegu FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Daegu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Suwon Bluewings's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Suwon Bluewings have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Suwon Bluewings (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Suwon Bluewings's last 10 away games) — Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Suwon Bluewings in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Daegu FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Daegu FC 1–0 Suwon Bluewings — a Daegu FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 49% | Suwon Bluewings 51%). Note also that Suwon Bluewings surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.47 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.078 / defence 1.027 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.922 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.231. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 52 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 52.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 3.55 | Suwon Bluewings 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Suwon Bluewings 60% (last 10 away games).

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