Pohang Steelers 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 7W 2D 1L at Steelyard Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pohang Steelers 60% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.30 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.173 / defence 0.899 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.230 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.207. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Pohang Steelers games / 53 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.30 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.173 / def 0.899 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.230 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 35% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.17x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
35%
2.90
30%
3.39
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.64
1.33
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.33 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 19D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.17 PPG from 58 outings (38W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 16W 8D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 2.04 points per game from 28 outings (17W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.74 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 62%.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 26W 19D 13L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 38W 12D 8L in their last 58 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 61%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pohang Steelers) and 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Pohang Steelers's games and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.30 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 40%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.