Gwangju FC 2-5 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Gwangju FC — this Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gwangju FC welcome FC Anyang to Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Gwangju FC) versus 1.60 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Gwangju FC: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for FC Anyang, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Gwangju FC 1–0 FC Anyang — a Gwangju FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Gwangju FC an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Anyang trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 37% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.00 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.005 | FC Anyang attack 0.922 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 42 games and FC Anyang's last 42.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 3.22 | Draw 2.96 | FC Anyang 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Anyang 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Gwangju FC 1.00 / FC Anyang 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.926 / def 1.005 | FC Anyang attack 0.922 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Anyang xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC 2 - 5 FC Anyang.
Where is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 31% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gwangju FC and FC Anyang will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.93) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 42 games and FC Anyang's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
31%
3.22
34%
2.96
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.08
FC Anyang xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.08 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.42 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 19 home games (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 6W 3D 10L from their last 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
Gwangju FC (Home) vs FC Anyang (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang Form FAQs
What form are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2025. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won Gwangju FC 2-5 FC Anyang.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Gwangju FC 1-1 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 47%, FC Anyang 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gwangju FC) and 58% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Anyang in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gwangju FC and FC Anyang matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Gwangju FC's games and 63% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 58% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and FC Anyang matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 68% of FC Anyang's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Anyang run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gwangju FC 2-5 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.00 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Anyang outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 37%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.42 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.