Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's full-season record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 11 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 38 games (5%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
Across 38 matches this season, Daejeon Citizen have gone 18W 11D 9L. Attacking returns: 1.5 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 5 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 9 of 38 games (24%). Penalties this season: 8 scored / 0 missed from 8 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.
Daejeon Citizen have been the more prolific side this season at 1.50 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 9). Daejeon Citizen score 2+ goals far more often (24% vs 5%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Ulsan Hyundai FC 4/4 vs Daejeon Citizen 8/8 this season.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Daejeon Citizen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Daejeon Citizen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / defence 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 42 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Daejeon Citizen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daejeon Citizen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Managers: Ulsan Hyundai FC (Shin Tae-Yong) | Daejeon Citizen (Park Cheol) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Daejeon Citizen 4W • Goals trend: 3.22 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 15 – 14 Daejeon Citizen • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% / Draw 22% / Daejeon Citizen 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 34% / draw 29% / away 37% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.22 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W • Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Daejeon Citizen away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: Daejeon Citizen lead by 1.00 PPG (2.00 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Daejeon Citizen): Poisson xG of 1.42 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Daejeon Citizen — Daejeon Citizen at 37% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% | Draw 29% | Daejeon Citizen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 / Daejeon Citizen 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / def 1.161 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.042 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Daejeon Citizen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 4 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
• Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Daejeon Citizen 4W • Goals trend: 3.22 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 15 – 14 Daejeon Citizen • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 56% | Win rates: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% / Draw 22% / Daejeon Citizen 44% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 34% / draw 29% / away 37% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.22 goals/game (56% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 58% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
• Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W • Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Daejeon Citizen away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • Form edge: Daejeon Citizen lead by 1.00 PPG (2.00 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Daejeon Citizen): Poisson xG of 1.42 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.9 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 58% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Daejeon Citizen — Daejeon Citizen at 37% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture