FC Anyang 0-1 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 46%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Bucheon FC 1995 at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L at Anyang Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 K League 1 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bucheon FC 1995 — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.21 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.988 / defence 0.866 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.674 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.326. Data: 43 FC Anyang games / 10 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 46% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Bucheon FC 1995 4.35. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Anyang as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 46% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Anyang 1.21 / Bucheon FC 1995 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.988 / def 0.866 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.674 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
FC Anyang 0 - 1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 46% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 0.99x the league average against Bucheon FC 1995's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.20
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
1.99
0.77
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC Anyang and 0.77 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Anyang, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bucheon FC 1995, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bucheon FC 1995 by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Anyang heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
FC Anyang are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have FC Anyang or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
1
Draws
1
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 1-1 FC Anyang.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Anyang's recent games and 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Bucheon FC 1995 tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bucheon FC 1995 in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bucheon FC 1995 defy the odds to beat FC Anyang 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 beat FC Anyang 0-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.21 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 0.77 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 46% | Draw 31% | Bucheon FC 1995 23%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bucheon FC 1995 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 50%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Anyang managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.