Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bucheon FC 1995 take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.898 / defence 1.111 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.167. Data: 9 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 42 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.898 / def 1.111 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.833 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 31% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
35%
2.82
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.11
1.08
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.08 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bucheon FC 1995 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent matches and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bucheon FC 1995's matches and 100% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bucheon FC 1995.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 9/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 31% | Draw 35% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.