Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 0.980. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 1 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.57 | Draw 3.18 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.078 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 28% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 1 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
28%
3.57
31%
3.18
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.18 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 14D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 24W 7D 9L from 40 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 20 home games (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 3D 6L from their last 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 24W 7D 9L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 55% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.