Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Incheon United.

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Analysis

Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Incheon United have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.60 for Incheon United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Incheon United edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–3 Incheon United — a Incheon United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 61%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Incheon United 38%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 61% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG and Incheon United 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.991 / defence 0.903 | Incheon United attack 0.900 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.933. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 35 games and Incheon United's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 35% | Incheon United 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.46 | Draw 2.89 | Incheon United 4.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Ulsan Hyundai FC 35 games, Incheon United 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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