Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Daejeon Citizen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2.00 for Daejeon Citizen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W, Daejeon Citizen 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% versus Daejeon Citizen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Daejeon Citizen 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.686 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.583 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.065. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.583 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 42 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 34%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Daejeon Citizen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Daejeon Citizen 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 / Daejeon Citizen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.994 / def 0.686 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.583 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Daejeon Citizen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (4 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 2 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.58x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.61
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.16
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.16 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 14L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.26 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.13 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-4 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.69 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.58 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 34%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Daejeon Citizen 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.