Gangwon FC 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 05:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gangneung Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Gangneung Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.927 / defence 0.961 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.997 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.173. Data: 43 Gangwon FC games / 43 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 05:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Gangwon FC 0.98 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.927 / def 0.961 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.997 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 30% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
30%
3.28
32%
3.16
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.12 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 13D 14L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (8W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 8W 6D 5L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gangwon FC) and 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 37%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Gangwon FC's matches and 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 1-3 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 30% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.