Pohang Steelers 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 45%, yet in-form Seongnam FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Seongnam FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pohang Steelers stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pohang Steelers's home record at Steelyard Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Seongnam FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Seongnam FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Seongnam FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pohang Steelers, 3 for Seongnam FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Seongnam FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Seongnam FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 42% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.53 xG and Seongnam FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.968 / defence 0.911 | Seongnam FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.180. Seongnam FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Pohang Steelers games / 43 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 45% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Seongnam FC 3.45. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Seongnam FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Seongnam FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 45% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.53 / Seongnam FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.968 / def 0.911 | Seongnam FC attack 1.089 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Seongnam FC xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 45% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC?
Record (4 meetings): Pohang Steelers 1W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 3W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.97) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.80
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Seongnam FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.17 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Pohang Steelers have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Seongnam FC's form line: 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.21 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pohang Steelers have posted 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Seongnam FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.05 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pohang Steelers) and 53% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 32% of games; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 53% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.53 xG and Seongnam FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Seongnam FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 45% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 29%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 42%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.21 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.