Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 xG and Gangwon FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.069 / defence 1.078 | Gangwon FC attack 1.059 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.206. Data: 9 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 42 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 / Gangwon FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.069 / def 1.078 | Gangwon FC attack 1.059 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Gangwon FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 5 May 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Gangwon FC away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.07) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (1.06x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 9/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.53
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Gangwon FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.38 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.42 xG and Gangwon FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Gangwon FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 9/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 35%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.