Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Incheon United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Ulsan Hyundai FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over Incheon United (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Incheon United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Incheon United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Incheon United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG and Incheon United 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.210 / defence 0.848 | Incheon United attack 1.037 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.155. Data: 44 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 44 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 28%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Incheon United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Incheon United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 / Incheon United 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.210 / def 0.848 | Incheon United attack 1.037 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Incheon United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 43% chance of winning, Incheon United a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.21) and Incheon United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (1.04x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.44
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Incheon United xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.02 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 21W 11D 6L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (13W 5D 1L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Incheon United away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Incheon United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Incheon United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Incheon United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of Incheon United's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG and Incheon United 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Incheon United attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 28%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Incheon United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.