Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Seoul — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, FC Seoul 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus FC Seoul 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | FC Seoul 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG and FC Seoul 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.982 | FC Seoul attack 0.812 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.120. Data: 40 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 39 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 29%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | FC Seoul 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | FC Seoul 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 / FC Seoul 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.153 / def 0.982 | FC Seoul attack 0.812 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Seoul xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Record (4 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 2 | FC Seoul 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.15) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.27
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.00
0.89
FC Seoul xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.89 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 44W 16D 16L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.49 PPG from 76 outings (30W 23D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 27W 7D 4L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.37 points per game from 38 outings (13W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 games (1.95 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, FC Seoul have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, FC Seoul 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (FC Seoul). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 63% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 50% of FC Seoul's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG and FC Seoul 0.89 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Seoul landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against FC Seoul attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 31% | FC Seoul 29%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.