FC Anyang 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as FC Anyang take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Anyang have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Anyang at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC Anyang carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC Anyang's games and 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's (from FC Anyang's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FC Anyang have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended FC Anyang 3–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a FC Anyang win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Anyang surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 54% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.978 / defence 0.893 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.176. Data: built from FC Anyang's last 41 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41.
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 34% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.92 | Draw 2.88 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.22. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches — though recent form (FC Anyang's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Anyang 60% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 34% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Anyang 1.15 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.978 / def 0.893 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.037 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 34% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.98) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Anyang's last 41 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
35%
2.88
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.24
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.09 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 7D 17L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.29 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 19 home games (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 6D 9L from their last 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Anyang come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Anyang (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Anyang
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.47 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2025. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Anyang have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: FC Anyang 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 58%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Anyang) and 37% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 32% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Anyang's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Anyang's recent games and 37% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 79% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 34% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.29 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.