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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Gwangju FC welcome FC Anyang to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gwangju Football Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Gwangju FC) versus 1.60 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

Gwangju FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Anyang, with 3 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.

The historical record gives Gwangju FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Season Statistics

Gwangju FC's full-season record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 38 games (3%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 0 missed from 6 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

The visitors have accumulated 14W 7D 17L from their 38 K League 1 appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 38 games (16%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Gwangju FC lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 6). Penalty activity: Gwangju FC 6/6 vs FC Anyang 2/2 this season.

In-Play Data

Gwangju FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

FC Anyang trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 37% | FC Anyang 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.00 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.005 | FC Anyang attack 0.922 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.171. Data: 42 Gwangju FC games / 42 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 34% | FC Anyang 35%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | FC Anyang 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gwangju FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.

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