Daegu FC 3-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 45% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 09:30 UK time.
Current Form
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Daegu FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeju United FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Jeju United FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) — Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Jeju United FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Daegu FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Jeju United FC managing 1 and 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Daegu FC 2–2 Jeju United FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Daegu FC an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Jeju United FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Jeju United FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.965 / defence 1.065 | Jeju United FC attack 0.749 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.040. Jeju United FC's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 43 games and Jeju United FC's last 43.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 45% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.21 | Draw 3.37 | Jeju United FC 3.97. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet Jeju United FC are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Daegu FC 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Daegu FC's last 10 home games and Jeju United FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Jeju United FC 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 45% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Daegu FC 1.22 / Jeju United FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.965 / def 1.065 | Jeju United FC attack 0.749 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Jeju United FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 45% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.96) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.75x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 43 games and Jeju United FC's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.37
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.83
Jeju United FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.83 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 23W 26D 27L from 76 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 36L across 76 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.18 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 13W 16D 9L from their last 38 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 9W 7D 22L across their last 38 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Jeju United FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 25W 15D 36L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won Jeju United FC 0-4 Daegu FC on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 55%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeju United FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 68% of Jeju United FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Jeju United FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Jeju United FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 45% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.