📋

Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bucheon FC 1995 vs Jeju United FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bucheon FC 1995 and Jeju United FC meet at Bucheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Jeju United FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Bucheon FC 1995's favour (3.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Jeju United FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Jeju United FC winning.

It is worth noting that Jeju United FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Stats

Across 2 matches this season, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 0D 0L. Attacking returns: 2.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 1-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. 1 clean sheet this season (1 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 2 games (50%). Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Jeju United FC show 12W 9D 19L from 40 outings in K League 1. Attacking returns: 1.1 goals per game; defensive: 1.3 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 11 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 40 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game, 0.22 reds per game.

Bucheon FC 1995 have the stronger attack on season averages, scoring 2.00 per game versus 1.10 for the visitors. Jeju United FC lead on clean sheets this season (11 vs 1). Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Bucheon FC 1995 score 2+ goals far more often (50% vs 8%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Jeju United FC have been awarded 3 penalties this season (3 scored).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 0.83 xG and Jeju United FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.816 / defence 1.089 | Jeju United FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.377. Data: 11 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 44 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 23% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.08. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Jeju United FC lead the H2H ledger, but Bucheon FC 1995 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights