Daegu FC 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon City FC's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Daegu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 1, Suwon City FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 3–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Suwon City FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.821 / defence 0.712 | Suwon City FC attack 0.889 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.164. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Daegu FC's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Daegu FC games / 65 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon City FC 5.26. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 40% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Daegu FC 1.39 / Suwon City FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.821 / def 0.712 | Suwon City FC attack 0.889 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Suwon City FC xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.36
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.74
Suwon City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.74 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 28D 20L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 21W 15D 34L from 70 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.34 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.62 PPG from 34 outings (14W 13D 7L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 7D 19L from 34 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 22W 28D 20L in their last 70 games (1.34 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 21W 15D 34L in their last 70 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 44%, Suwon City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 47% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC finished level at 2-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Suwon City FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.33, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Suwon City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.34 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.