Daegu FC 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Daegu FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Daegu FC stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Daegu FC at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Suwon City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Daegu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Daegu FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Jun 2023, ended Daegu FC 3–1 Suwon City FC — a Daegu FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Suwon City FC 61%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.821 / defence 0.712 | Suwon City FC attack 0.889 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.164. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.333 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Daegu FC's projected output up. Daegu FC have a tight defence (rating 0.712), which is pulling Suwon City FC's projected output down. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 65 games and Suwon City FC's last 65.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.95 | Draw 3.36 | Suwon City FC 5.31. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 33 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Daegu FC 1.39 / Suwon City FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.821 / def 0.712 | Suwon City FC attack 0.889 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Suwon City FC xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 33) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Daegu FC's last 65 games and Suwon City FC's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.36
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.74
Suwon City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.74 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 28D 20L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 21W 15D 34L from 70 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.34 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 34 home games (14W 13D 7L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 8W 7D 19L from their last 34 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 22W 28D 20L in their last 70 games (1.34 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 21W 15D 34L in their last 70 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 44%, Suwon City FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 47% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 74% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Suwon City FC finished level at 2-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.39 xG and Suwon City FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.71 against Suwon City FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.33, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 51% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 19%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Suwon City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.34 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.