Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Pohang Steelers at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Suwon Bluewings have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Pohang Steelers have recorded 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 7D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pohang Steelers — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Pohang Steelers 3, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Jul 2023, ended Suwon Bluewings 1–1 Pohang Steelers — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 54% versus Pohang Steelers 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 49% | Pohang Steelers 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon Bluewings surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Pohang Steelers have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.76 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.699 / defence 1.038 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.015 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.164. Suwon Bluewings's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Suwon Bluewings's last 65 games and Pohang Steelers's last 65.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 46%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.57 | Draw 3.13 | Pohang Steelers 2.17. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon Bluewings's last 10 home games and Pohang Steelers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Suwon Bluewings 40% (last 10 home games) | Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.76 / Pohang Steelers 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.699 / def 1.038 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.015 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers FAQs
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 08:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 33) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 22% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon Bluewings's last 65 games and Pohang Steelers's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
22%
4.57
32%
3.13
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.99
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.23 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 16W 19D 35L from 70 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 31W 25D 14L across 70 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pohang Steelers by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon Bluewings heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 8W 10D 17L from their last 35 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 11W 15D 9L across their last 35 away games, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers in 60%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings (Home) vs Pohang Steelers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers Form FAQs
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 19D 35L in their last 70 games (0.96 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 31W 25D 14L in their last 70 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Pohang Steelers's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 0.97 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won Pohang Steelers 0-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
4
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2023: Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 49%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Suwon Bluewings) and 43% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon Bluewings vs Pohang Steelers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Suwon Bluewings and Pohang Steelers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 43% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.76 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.70 / defence 1.04 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.01 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 32% | Pohang Steelers 46%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Suwon Bluewings win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 49%, Pohang Steelers 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Suwon Bluewings winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.