Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42%, yet in-form Incheon United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Incheon United have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Incheon United are 0.70 PPG clear of Ulsan Hyundai FC over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Incheon United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jul 2023, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Incheon United — a Incheon United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Incheon United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Incheon United 39%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 59% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Incheon United 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.174 / defence 1.039 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.164. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 65 games and Incheon United's last 65.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.37 | Draw 3.59 | Incheon United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Incheon United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Incheon United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 08:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 / Incheon United 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.174 / def 1.039 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Incheon United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 08:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 33) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Incheon United a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.17) and Incheon United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.99x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 65 games and Incheon United's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.59
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.20
Incheon United xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.20 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 42W 16D 12L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 25W 26D 19L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 34 home games (22W 7D 5L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 12W 12D 10L from their last 34 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Incheon United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 42W 16D 12L in their last 70 games (2.03 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 25W 26D 19L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Incheon United away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 68%, Incheon United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 47% of Incheon United's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 65% of Incheon United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Incheon United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Incheon United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Incheon United attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Incheon United's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.