Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Daegu FC have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.40 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 0 for Daegu FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2023, ended Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Daegu FC — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Daegu FC 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.997 / defence 0.915 | Daegu FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.146. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 64 games and Daegu FC's last 64.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.36 | Draw 3.32 | Daegu FC 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 50% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 / Daegu FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.997 / def 0.915 | Daegu FC attack 0.926 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Daegu FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 32) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 42% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.00x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 64 games and Daegu FC's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.32
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.24
0.97
Daegu FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.97 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 34W 17D 18L from 69 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 28D 20L across 69 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.72 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 11D 7L from their last 35 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 15D 13L across their last 35 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 34W 17D 18L in their last 69 games (1.72 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 21W 28D 20L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.77 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won Daegu FC 0-4 Jeonbuk Motors.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2025: Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 54%, Daegu FC 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 49% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 66% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 60% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Daegu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 39%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.72 PPG, Daegu FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.