Pohang Steelers 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Pohang Steelers have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Pohang Steelers's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Pohang Steelers, 0 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Pohang Steelers 2–1 Suwon City FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 60% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 39% | Suwon City FC 63%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 73% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.90 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.103 / defence 0.895 | Suwon City FC attack 0.926 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.208. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pohang Steelers's projected output up. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 52 games and Suwon City FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.76 | Draw 4.02 | Suwon City FC 5.49. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.90 / Suwon City FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.103 / def 0.895 | Suwon City FC attack 0.926 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 57% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.93x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 52 games and Suwon City FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.02
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.90
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
36.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.00 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 19D 13L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 57 outings (18W 13D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 25W 19D 13L in their last 57 games (1.65 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 18W 13D 26L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon City FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 22 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from the 7 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 July 2025: Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Pohang Steelers) and 54% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 65% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.90 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 18%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 39%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (57 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (57 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.