Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Daegu FC.

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Analysis

Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 June 2023 at 12:30 UK time.

Current Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Daegu FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 80% of Daegu FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Daegu FC 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ulsan Hyundai FC surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 xG and Daegu FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.561 / defence 1.028 | Daegu FC attack 0.812 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.250. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.561 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 51 games and Daegu FC's last 51.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.91 | Draw 3.84 | Daegu FC 4.61. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 80% (last 10 away games).

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