Daegu FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Daegu FC welcome Gangwon FC to DGB Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.28 xG and Gangwon FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.010 / defence 0.882 | Gangwon FC attack 0.659 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.204. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Daegu FC games / 17 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 48% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Gangwon FC 5.56. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 48% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Daegu FC 1.28 / Gangwon FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.010 / def 0.882 | Gangwon FC attack 0.659 / def 1.309 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Gangwon FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 48% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Daegu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.01) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
48%
2.08
34%
2.96
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.98
0.70
Gangwon FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.70 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daegu FC
4
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.28 xG and Gangwon FC 0.70 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Gangwon FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 48% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 18%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.