Daegu FC 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Arena in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 June 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.10 xG and FC Seoul 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.988 / defence 0.808 | FC Seoul attack 0.704 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.235. Data: 18 Daegu FC games / 15 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 35% | FC Seoul 21%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | FC Seoul 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 43% | Draw 35% | FC Seoul 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Daegu FC 1.10 / FC Seoul 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.988 / def 0.808 | FC Seoul attack 0.704 / def 1.161 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.70
FC Seoul xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 43% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.99) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
43%
2.32
35%
2.82
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.81
0.70
FC Seoul xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.70 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Daegu FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Daegu FC and FC Seoul drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.10 xG and FC Seoul 0.70 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against FC Seoul attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 18/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 43% | Draw 35% | FC Seoul 21%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.