FC Seoul 0-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as FC Seoul welcome Suwon Bluewings to Seoul World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.03 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.968 / defence 1.227 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.075 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.149. Data: 14 FC Seoul games / 18 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 24% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 46%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Suwon Bluewings 2.17. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 24% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Seoul 1.03 / Suwon Bluewings 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.968 / def 1.227 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.075 / def 1.101 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Suwon Bluewings xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
FC Seoul 0 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 24% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 0.97x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
24%
4.25
30%
3.30
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.55
1.52
Suwon Bluewings xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.52 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
1
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon Bluewings?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Suwon Bluewings run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Seoul.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat FC Seoul 0-3 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.03 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.52 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Suwon Bluewings attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 24% | Draw 30% | Suwon Bluewings 46%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.