Seongnam FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Gangwon FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 June 2021 at 08:00 UTC.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Seongnam FC, 0 for Gangwon FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Gangwon FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.902 / defence 1.478 | Gangwon FC attack 0.624 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.262. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Seongnam FC games / 18 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Gangwon FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jun 2021, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Seongnam FC 1.11 / Gangwon FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.902 / def 1.478 | Gangwon FC attack 0.624 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Gangwon FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 08:00 on Saturday 26 June 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Seongnam FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 32% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (1 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 0W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.90) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
32%
3.13
33%
3.00
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.16
Gangwon FC xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.16 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Gangwon FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Seongnam FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Seongnam FC 1-2 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Gangwon FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.48 against Gangwon FC attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 32% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 35%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.