Daegu FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Pohang Steelers travel to DGB Arena to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Daegu FC — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at DGB Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Arena this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Daegu FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Pohang Steelers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 42% | Pohang Steelers 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.13 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.858 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.863 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 0.930 / away 1.402. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Daegu FC games / 19 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 33% | Pohang Steelers 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Pohang Steelers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 33% | Pohang Steelers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Daegu FC 1.13 / Pohang Steelers 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.994 / def 0.858 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.863 / def 1.220 | league avg home 0.930 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pohang Steelers xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 36% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.02
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.04
Pohang Steelers xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.04 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 6L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.74 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 5W 3D 1L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Daegu FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
5
Draws
4
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Pohang Steelers have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 44%, Pohang Steelers 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Daegu FC) and 44% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Daegu FC's games and 67% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Daegu FC's recent games and 44% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and Pohang Steelers finished level at 1-1 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.13 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.04 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 36% | Draw 33% | Pohang Steelers 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 42%, Pohang Steelers 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.74 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.