Damac 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dhamak Club Stadium plays host to Damac versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Dhamak Club Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Damac's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Damac 2W, Al-Ettifaq 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Damac goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 51% | Al-Ettifaq 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.134 / defence 0.897 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.829 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.485. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Damac games / 51 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Damac 1.32 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.134 / def 0.897 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.829 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Damac 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Damac vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Damac and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in?
Damac (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.83x) against Damac's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.27
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Damac xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Damac and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 16D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.27 PPG from 51 outings (17W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Damac against 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Damac's home form reads 10W 9D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.02 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Damac's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.56 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Damac
2
Draws
6
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 36% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 32%; Al-Ettifaq in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Damac's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Damac's recent games and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 0-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.32 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Damac fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 40% | Draw 31% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 51%, Al-Ettifaq 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.31 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.