Damac 1-0 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Damac welcome Al Wehda Club to Dhamak Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 7 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Damac are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Damac, 1 for Al Wehda Club and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with Al Wehda Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al Wehda Club 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Wehda Club 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.75 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.740 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.480. Data: 52 Damac games / 52 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 21%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wehda Club 4.76. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al Wehda Club 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 51% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Damac 1.75 / Al Wehda Club 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.740 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Damac (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Damac vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 7 March 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Damac 1 - 0 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Damac vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Damac vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 51% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Damac and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 1 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Wehda Club in?
Damac (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Damac's attack rating (1.05) and Al Wehda Club's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.65
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Damac xG
Total xG
2.82
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
4%
26.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Damac and 1.07 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 17W 16D 19L from 52 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wehda Club, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 25L across 52 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.29 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 9W 9D 7L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wehda Club's away record stands at 6W 3D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 17W 16D 19L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 11D 25L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Damac's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 3, Al Wehda Club have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2025, when Damac 0-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Wehda Club?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al Wehda Club 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Damac) and 44% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Damac's recent matches and 44% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Damac's recent games and 44% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al Wehda Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Wehda Club 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.75 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 51% | Draw 27% | Al Wehda Club 21%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Wehda Club 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.29 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.