Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Raid Club Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at Al Raid Club Stadium this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.50 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 67% | Al-Fayha 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.68 xG and Al-Fayha 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.013 / defence 1.125 | Al-Fayha attack 1.012 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.422. Data: 51 Al-Raed games / 51 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Raed 1.68 / Al-Fayha 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.013 / def 1.125 | Al-Fayha attack 1.012 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Al-Fayha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 29 February 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.95
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.30
1.62
Al-Fayha xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.62 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 21L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 9W 3D 13L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.10 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 16D 21L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 56%, Al-Fayha 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Raed and 56% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Raed's games and 64% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Raed's matches and 56% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Raed 1-2 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.68 xG and Al-Fayha 1.62 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Al-Fayha attack 1.01 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 67%, Al-Fayha 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.