Abha 2-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Abha welcome Al Taee to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.50 conceded. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Abha) versus 0.80 (Al Taee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Abha, 2 for Al Taee and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 61% versus Al Taee 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 69% | Al Taee 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.43 xG and Al Taee 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.875 / defence 1.123 | Al Taee attack 0.700 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.485. Data: 51 Abha games / 51 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 29%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taee 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Abha as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 70% | Al Taee 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Abha 1.43 / Al Taee 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.875 / def 1.123 | Al Taee attack 0.700 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Abha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Taee xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Taee kick off?
Abha vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Abha 2 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Abha vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Taee part of?
Abha vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 41% chance of winning, Al Taee a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Abha and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Abha 3W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 2W.
What form are Abha and Al Taee in?
Abha (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.88) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.42
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Abha xG
Total xG
2.59
1.17
Al Taee xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Abha and 1.17 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Abha have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 14W 6D 31L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 15W 7D 29L from 51 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 0.94 PPG, Al Taee on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 3W 5D 17L from 25 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.24 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 14W 6D 31L in their last 51 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 15W 7D 29L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Taee away?
Abha's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.52 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Abha
0
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 4, Al Taee have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Abha 2-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Taee?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 68%, Al Taee 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Abha and 52% for Al Taee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Taee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Abha's games and 48% of Al Taee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Abha's matches and 52% of Al Taee's.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Taee 2-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.43 xG and Al Taee 1.17 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Taee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Al Taee attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 41% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 29%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 69%, Al Taee 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 0.94 PPG, Al Taee 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.